How 3-Pointers Changed the NBA Forever — Diving Into Sports Analytics
One quote has stuck with me for years… “If you shoot at least 33.3% from 3, it’s just as good as shooting 50.0% from 2.” It’s safe to say that the game of basketball at all levels reflects this. The 3-point line hasn’t existed forever. It was introduced into the NBA in 1980.
In the 2022–23 NBA season, 29 out of 30 teams shoot at least 30 threes per game. In the 2013–14 NBA season, not one team shot 30 threes per game. In less than 10 years, we have seen a drastic change in how players, coaches, and GMs approach the game of basketball.
Do we notice a trend? There isn’t a single one prior to 2019! Making 25+ threes in a game is literally unheard of prior to the rise of Stephen Curry. The craziest aspect of this chart is the Warriors only appearing twice in the top 12… even though they arguably have the two greatest 3-point shooters of all-time playing on their team, in Klay Thompson and Steph Curry. It goes to show that their influence from the 3-point line has been significant enough to change the way many teams in the NBA approach the game.
Modern-Day Scoring
Beyond three-pointers, points per game from teams have drastically changed as well. This season (2022–23), there is not one NBA team averaging under 108.0 PPG (Lowest is 108.3 PPG). Twenty years ago, in the 2002–03 NBA season, the highest PPG from a team was 103.0. The lowest average from a team that season was 84.3 PPG, which is about the average through three quarters in a NBA game today.
There has been a widespread argument from fans of the ‘Old School’ era of the NBA that claims “There is no defense played today.” Well, the response to that is that NBA teams are getting just as many field goal attempts (FGA) per game. This season, the average is 88.2 shot attempts for each team. There are small variances in between, but if you go back to the 1981–82 NBA season, the average FGA by a team was EXACTLY the same, 88.2 shot attempts per game. The difference comes from the amount of 3-point attempts that the average NBA team has nowadays. Front offices, coaches, and players have all realized that they have a chance to score significantly more points with more 3PA.
Analytics did this. Mid-range shots ae no longer the most effective way to score in a NBA game. Aside from that, there are still plenty of mid-range specialist that shoot them at a high percentage (DeMar DeRozan, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and many more).
Range Extension
Another popular trend we have only been accustomed to in the past few years is to evolution of long-range 3-pointers. The current three-point line is just under 24' from the basket. Damian Lillard, one of the best shooters ever, made a decision to focus on becoming an elite deep-range shooter during an off-season. The question with this is always, “Why shoot a super long shot? It doesn’t have a good chance of going in.” Damian Lillard’s response to that; “I’m open.” It’s true, the deeper you can shoot, the more space on the floor opens up for teammates or an opportunity to drive to the rim.
Due to the up rise in deep shots, we have started to see scoring explosions from guards in our league. Damian Lillard recently scored 71 points this season (The most in a game since Kobe Bryant in 2006), including 13 three-pointers. Donovan Mitchell did the same thing, scoring 71 points in a game earlier this season too.
Coaching Game Plans
Obviously, the Golden State Warriors with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson changed how coaches plan for games, but there has also been a significant change in the way coaches prepare their own teams for how they will approach games. Mike D’Antoni with the Houston Rockets and James Harden revolutionized how NBA games could be played.
This graph shows the most 3-point attempts ever by a team in a game. It’s safe to say the Houston Rockets’ gameplan was unlike anything we have ever seen. Not only will we continue to see this record being broken in the future, we will also see a significant amount of teams realizing that they need elite shooters on their team to be able to compete at the highest level.
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